Some ABCs of Forecasting
James Woudhuysen at UX Brighton 2018
About this talk
For all its past errors, forecasting is something UX professionals will be expected to make part of their repertoire – particularly when project lead-times are long, and the prospective new system is meant to last, adapt to change and all that.
In this talk, James outlined some Dos and Don’ts to remember when imagining how people are likely to evolve in the years to 2030.
Among his recommendations: Think Asia. Interrogate fad categories. Distinguish real risks from perceived risks. Rate forecasting algebra higher than forecasting arithmetic. Most importantly, make a synthesis of tendencies and counter-tendencies.
About James
Professor James Woudhuysen is a forecaster, a futurist and a big strategic thinker. With a background in technology, manufacturing and academia, he’s built a formidable reputation for looking ahead to identify the trends, risks and innovations with the potential to shape the way we live and work.
While James is widely known for the vision and frankness within his own forecasting, he’s a great believer in enabling us all to develop useful, practical and sensible forecasting skills. He freely shares his advice on what researchers can do to get to grips with the future that awaits their customers, their industry and ways of working.
Related reading
Books, research, ideas and people referenced in this talk.
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Books
- On War15:02Clausewitz's distinction between strategy and tactics is applied to long-term UX leadership.
- A Dictionary of the English Language08:12Samuel Johnson's definition connects physical agility with mental anticipation and forecasting.
Papers and articles
- A Theory of Human Motivation20:01Maslow's original account is subtler than the familiar pyramid of needs.
- Global Warming of 1.5 C40:35The IPCC report behind the talk's discussion of sea-level projections and risk.
- Defining the Human Age: A Reflection on Customer Service in 203032:22Research cited in the slides behind the criticism of the digital-native millennial stereotype.
Concepts
- Manifesto for Agile Software Development04:25The origin point for the organisational appetite for agility that frames the talk.
- ResearchOps04:27One operational movement cited as evidence that agility has spread beyond software development.
- The stakeholder concept26:02SRI documents the term's 1963 origin; the talk argues that it can obscure differences in power.
- Prototyping44:34Practical experiments and prototypes reduce uncertainty and distinguish genuine risks.
- Digital twins53:23Digital models of buildings could include acoustic behaviour as voice interfaces spread.
- Forecasting algebra over arithmetic49:10Examine assumptions and causal relationships before trusting numerical outputs.
- Tendencies and counter-tendencies53:57Test a projected direction against forces that could inhibit or reverse it.
People
- Douglas C. Engelbart26:22A pioneer of interactive computing invoked while discussing SRI's influence.
- Demis Hassabis54:26Cited for emphasising human intelligence and autonomy when judging AI's role.
Projects and resources
- OECD Research and Development Statistics47:15Comparative R&D spending evidence behind the instruction to look east for innovation.
- China Daily46:58Recommended as a regular source for developments Western forecasting may miss.
