Continuing Some ABCs of Forecasting
Some ABCs of Forecasting - James Woudhuysen at UX Brighton 2018
About this talk
For all its past errors, forecasting is something UX professionals will be expected to make part of their repertoire – particularly when project lead-times are long, and the prospective new system is meant to last, adapt to change and all that.
In this talk, James outlined some Dos and Don’ts to remember when imagining how people are likely to evolve in the years to 2030.
Among his recommendations: Think Asia. Interrogate fad categories. Distinguish real risks from perceived risks. Rate forecasting algebra higher than forecasting arithmetic. Most importantly, make a synthesis of tendencies and counter-tendencies.
Methods mentioned
Related reading
Books
Papers and articles
- A Theory of Human Motivation20:01
- Global Warming of 1.5 C40:35
- Defining the Human Age: A Reflection on Customer Service in 203032:22
Concepts
- Manifesto for Agile Software Development04:25
- ResearchOps04:27
- The stakeholder concept26:02
- Digital twins53:23
- Forecasting algebra over arithmetic49:10
- Tendencies and counter-tendencies53:57
People
Projects and resources
About James
Professor James Woudhuysen is a forecaster, a futurist and a big strategic thinker. With a background in technology, manufacturing and academia, he’s built a formidable reputation for looking ahead to identify the trends, risks and innovations with the potential to shape the way we live and work.
While James is widely known for the vision and frankness within his own forecasting, he’s a great believer in enabling us all to develop useful, practical and sensible forecasting skills. He freely shares his advice on what researchers can do to get to grips with the future that awaits their customers, their industry and ways of working.
